I get this question at least three times a week right now: "Derek, should I just wait? Prices are dropping, inventory's up, why would I buy today?"
Fair question. Let's actually answer it instead of dancing around it like most realtors do.
The Numbers, No Spin
Niagara's got 3,364 homes sitting on the market right now, as of the end of June. That's 7.9% above the five-year average and 36.8% above the ten-year average for this time of year. New listings actually came in lower than a year ago, but sales still aren't clearing that supply the way they used to.
The sales-to-new-listings ratio worked out to 39.9% in June, 651 sales against 1,631 new listings. Anything under 40% is a buyer's market, plain and simple. We are firmly in buyer territory, Welland, St. Catharines, Thorold, Port Colborne, all of it.
The average sale price in June came in at $676,248, down about 1.2% from June last year. Zoom out to the whole year so far and the average is $643,224, down 5.8% from the same stretch in 2025.
So yeah. Prices are soft. Supply is elevated. If you're a buyer, the wind's blowing your way for the first time in years.
Here's the Thing About "Waiting for the Bottom"
Everybody wants to time the exact bottom. Nobody ever actually does it. You know why? Because the bottom only exists in hindsight. By the time you can prove prices hit bottom, they've already started climbing back up and the deal you were chasing is gone.
The Bank of Canada held its policy rate at 2.25% again on July 15, the sixth straight time they've held. That's not a rate cut, but it's not a hike either, and it means the mortgage math isn't getting worse on you while you sit and wait.
But here's what nobody tells you: the next rate announcement is September 2. If it moves either direction, the math changes on you. You don't control that. You can't build a buying strategy around guessing what a central bank does next. I don't, and I've been doing this a long time.
What a Real Buyer's Market Actually Gets You
This isn't about the number on the sign. It's about leverage. And right now you've got more of it than you've had in years.
Conditions get respected again. For two straight years, sellers could laugh off a financing condition or a home inspection clause because there were five other offers stacked up behind you. With supply running well above the norm, a seller who refuses reasonable conditions just sits there. Use that leverage. Get your inspection. Always get your inspection. Waiving it to "win" a house that isn't even in a bidding war anymore is just stupid.
Repairs become negotiable, not optional. A cracked foundation wall, knob-and-tube wiring in an older character home, a furnace on its last legs, in a hot market you'd eat that cost yourself just to close the deal. Right now you can ask the seller to fix it, credit it, or you walk. That's how it should work.
Time is on your side. You can actually think for 48 hours before making an offer. Remember when that used to be normal?
The Neighbourhoods Where This Matters Most
Welland's older housing stock has plenty of homes that need real work: roofs, electrical panels, foundations. In a buyer's market you've got room to actually get those inspected properly and negotiate on what you find, instead of closing your eyes and hoping for the best.
Port Colborne's lakeside properties, the ones everybody wants for the view, are sitting longer than they used to. That's your window if you got priced out of that stretch before. Sellers there are getting more realistic by the month.
Thorold, especially anything near the escarpment or the older sections close to the canal, tends to have foundation and drainage quirks that a rushed buyer would've ignored two years ago. Not now. Take your time. Get it looked at properly.
St. Catharines is the one spot still holding a bit more strength, thanks to downtown redevelopment and the hospital nearby, but even there sellers aren't pulling five offers over asking like they were in 2022.
So Should You Wait?
If you're renting and healthy financially, waiting costs you nothing but time, and right now time might actually work in your favour a little longer. Fair enough.
But if you've found a property that checks your actual boxes, good bones, right location, priced fairly for this market and not 2022's market, waiting for some mythical better moment is a bad plan. You're not going to nail the exact bottom. Nobody does.
What you should do is use the leverage you've got today. Get the inspection. Negotiate the repairs. Don't waive conditions because you're scared some other buyer is circling. There probably isn't one right now, not the way there used to be.
I don't sell hype. I sell what the house actually is, and right now the market's telling the truth for once: it's a buyer's market. Act like it.
If the seller won't give you an inspection condition in a market like this? That's your answer right there. Walk.
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